As part of its preparedness activities, the Logistics Cluster has been working on emergency preparedness for a potential Mosul Dam incident since May 2016. A previous mission was conducted on 17 August 2016 to enquire about the key indicators at the Dam. Following the continued preparedness planning activities of the Logistics Cluster, a subsequent mission was planned with the added participation of the World Food Programme (WFP) emergency preparedness function. The joint mission of Logistics Cluster and WFP took place on 30 March 2017




Probability of Collapse
Right now, on Good Judgment Open (, more than 230 forecasters put the probability of this event occurring in 2017 at around 6%. That means that if 2017 was simulated and played 100 times, the dam would collapse in six of those runs. But simulated worlds and counterfactuals being what they are (we live in only one), it may be more useful to put the risk of collapse in terms of odds. A 6% chance translates roughly to 9:1 odds, making the chances of a dam collapse the equivalent of basketball star Stephen Curry missing a free throw, or to drawing a jack from a full deck of cards. If you live in the United States, you are ten times less likely to die in a car accident in your lifetime ( The forecasters on GJ Open put the odds of a dam collapse as roughly the same as North Korea not conducting a nuclear test ( in 2017





The Mesopotamian Marshlands exist in southern Iraq. They are the lands in between the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, and known today as the Iraqi marshes. They have been the home to civilizations such as the Sumerians and Akkadians who thrived in this area for more than five millennia. The Iraqi marshes are the largest wetlands in southwest Asia [1] with an area twice the size of the Everglades in Florida [2]. Therefore, in 2016, the Mesopotamian Marshlands (the Iraqi marshes) were listed as a World Heritage Site (UNESCO), making them most unique wetlands in the world [1].
The marshes are, moreover, critical in the ecological life-support system because they provide ecological services, such as clean water, clean air, and fertile soils. They safeguard hundreds of thousands of Arab marshes as well as wildlife, biodiversity, and habitats on a global scale [3]. In the past three decades, the Mesopotamian Marshlands have been severely damaged by anthropogenic impacts and climate factors. Therefore, there has been a huge change in the hydrology and ecology systems. The Tigris and Euphrates Rivers are the main sources of water to the Iraqi marshes [3]. The water quality and quantity of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers have degraded over the past 40- 70 years, respectively [4], [5]. The degradation in water quality 



Water plays a very essential and important role in social and economical development all over the world. The same is the case of Iraq, where the first Sumerian, Babylon, Assyrian civilizations on the banks of Tigris and Euphrates Rivers originated thousands of years ago. These civilizations were accompanied by construction of the first hydraulic structures of dams and irrigation canals and the drafting of laws for organized use of river waters. Water has been, and is still very important in the history of Iraq and its development. Thus, for us to understand what the future has for Iraq, we have to look at the existing water policies in Iraq and the challenges faced in investing in Water Resources development and management.
As a result of malfunctioning policies of the old regime in Iraq, interference in internal conflicts, regional and international wars, economic sanctions, lack of allocating necessary funds for infrastructural development and implementation of development projects, and lack of clear strategies for social and economic development in the country has led to deterioration in service delivery functions of various economic sectors. Furthermore, decisions for very large strategic projects were politically motivated more than being technically - sound




The land we know today as Iraq was, in ancient times, called Mesopotamia, or the land of the two rivers - a reference to the two great rivers, the Tigris and the Euphrates, which fed the region with water, allowing the growth of a great civilization, and which have supplied Iraq with water even to the present day. Both rivers are fed by snowpack and rainfall in eastern Turkey and northwest Iran, and they discharge peaks in March and May, too late for winter crops and too early for summer crops. The Euphrates, 1,730 miles long, flows through Syria while the Tigris, 1,150 miles long, comes down from Turkey into Iraq. There is also a network of smaller rivers from Iran, some of which feed into the Tigris. The combined annual flow of the two major rivers was about 80 billion cubic meters. However, there is an extensive system of diversions and irrigation canals dating back centuries, with more than a dozen major reservoir projects, a few on the main river systems but most on tributaries




The Strategy for Water and Land Resources in Iraq (SWLRI) project was initiated at the request of the Ministry of Water Resources (MoWR) in May 2005. The Phase 1 project was launched in July 2005 with funding from USAID, as a component of their Agriculture Reconstruction and Development in Iraq Program (ARDI), after a period of preparation facilitated by ARDI during which a draft Work Plan passed through a number of iterations before being finalised at a workshop in Amman in June 2005 attended by stakeholder ministries, representatives of USAID and ARDI. The Phase 1 project was scheduled for completion in September 2006.

The overall long term objective of the strategic planning effort is to provide a sound and comprehensive basis for Iraq’s management and development of its water and land resources over the next few decades, together with a framework and methodology for ongoing updating of plans. For Phase 1 the objective was to lay the foundations by focussing on three key areas: 





The Republic of Iraq’s (hereafter referred as Iraq) social and economic infrastructure was deteriorated due to 3 wars since 1980’s, and its economy declined because of economic closure formore than 10 years. On the other hand, it is being recovered and developed thanks to international assistance. In Iraq Agricultural sector employs 21.6%1  of the total workforce. Hence, agricultural sector is quite important to secure job opportunities, where unemployment is serious, especially in local areas with less job opportunities other than agriculture.
Iraq’s total national land is 434,000km22, which is 1.2 times larger than Japan. While total agricultural land in Iraq was 8.5 million ha in 2011, 4.15 million ha of land were cultivated and 3.66 million ha of land were irrigated. However, both are declining in recent years. Climate in Iraq is generally categorized as continental, subtropical or semiarid type of climate, whereas Mediterranean climate prevails in the mountainous area of northern and north-eastern region. Precipitation is seasonal, and wet season is between December and February except in northern and north-eastern Iraq where November to April is wet season. While annual average precipitation in Iraq as a whole is 216mm, it fluctuates from 1,200mm in north-eastern areas to less than 100mm in southern areas3




Iraq faces severe pressures on its water resources following years of conflict and under-investment in infrastructure. This report focuses on the state of water resources in Kirkuk governorate in the north of the country and identifies the main challenges that need to be addressed. In particular, it recommends a collaborative approach to water management between government, INGOs in the WASH sector and local communities and water users (including those involved in agriculture,
industry and electricity generation). It is hoped that its recommendations will inform approaches to water management across the country as a whole and in the wider Middle East region. 




Iraq is facing, for the first time in its long history, a serious water shortage problem. Aside from the seasonal variations in the flows of the Twin Rivers, the Euphrates and Tigris, ancient as well as contemporary Iraqis have never witnessed such a serious threat to water availability in the country. Most importantly, the causes of the recent water scarcity were not entirely natural. They were mostly man-made aggravated by natural occurrence of drought conditions. The most recent water shortage in Iraq in 2007-2009, is an example where water control structures, including dams and diversion schemes in neighboring countries, particularly in Turkey and Iran, have prolonged the drought conditions time, inflicting harm on Iraq’s economy and environment and forcing the Iraqi Ministry of Water Resources to declare to the public that it may not be able to meet the water requirements for the summer season of 2010. 






Iraq is one of the riparian countries within basins of Tigris–Euphrates Rivers in the Middle East region. The region is currently facing water shortage problems due to the increase of the demand and climate changes. In the present study, average monthly 5 water flow measurements for 15 stream flow gaging stations within basins of these rivers in Iraq with population growth rate data in some of its part were used to evaluate the reality of the current situation and future challenges of water availability and demand in Iraq. The results showed that Iraq receives annually 70.29 km3 of water 45.4 and 25.52 km3 from River Tigris and Euphrates respectively. An amount of 18.04 km3 10 is supplied by its tributaries inside Iraq. The whole amount of water in the Euphrates Rivers comes outside the Iraqi borders. Annual decrease of the water inflow